Brazil
Overview
Overview
There is a basic dichotomy in Brazilian affairs.
It starts with the statement that Brazil is a nation
where living conditions consistently continue to
improve for the lower classes, and, at the same
time, has one of the most disproportionate systems
of income distribution in the world. Recent economic
reports portray markets that are moving forward
in positive directions despite social differences.
Brazil is going through unprecedented internal changes.
They are the result of a search for freedom of choice
in the market. The country's changes can be seen
through the eyes of the consumer. Today many of
the imported goods can be seen in the streets or
in the supermarket of any Brazilian city. Yet many
of these products remain inaccessible to the vast
majority of the population.
Brazilian society is going through a transition from
a two-class society. Currently, a small percentage
of the population comprises the upper class, while
the majority of the people survive with little money
or resources. The country is moving toward being a
society with a rapidly developing middle class hungry
for a better standard of living. Brazil has traditionally
kept trade barriers in place, using import limits
or bans, and high tariffs. This closed the economy
in effect, kept foreign goods and investments out
of Brazil, maintaining supplies of high-quality imported
products depressed and prices inflated. In an effort
to modernize Brazil's economy and raise the standard
of living of the average citizen, the Brazilian government
has removed many trade barriers and lowered others,
and the government is, at least for the time being,
actively promoting foreign investment. The Brazilian
economy is receiving more international attention
and other foreign businesses are moving into the region.
Migrants from different parts of the globe are also
coming in search of better opportunities, making Brazil
a promising new economy.
Reality
The responsabilidade fiscal or budgetary responsibility,
was an important step in Brazilian history to change
policies regarding expenses of local governments.
New laws regulating federal and state taxes and expenditures
are in the process of becoming reality. Tax reforms
have been discussed for several years and await greater
stability within the congress to be voted on. Brazil
is going through a social and political process of
fighting corruption within all levels of government
and other social institutions. These changes have
awakened the population to the need for better income
distribution and for fighting against political misconduct.
Today these differences are being taken more seriously
than ever before. The population is getting involved
in these discussions and expecting punishment for
infractions.
Approximately
twelve years ago many world economists predicted that
Japan would take control of the world economy. Contrary
to these predictions, in these last years the USA
has guided the world economy and has heavily invested
in the region of South America. The opening of the
Brazilian economy presented investors with a virtually
untapped market of approximately 170 million people.
Brazil and its president Fernando Henrique Cardoso
have respected their agreements with international
organizations reflecting a commitment never seen in
Brazilian history before.
Challenges Ahead
All of the factors explained above and the positive
numbers presented by economic reports are today unique
to Brazil. A sustainable economy still moves as planned,
though Brazil is still vulnerable to other international
circumstances, such as prices of foreign oil and economic
crises in other emerging countries. To some extent,
Brazil does depend on these nations' well-being for
its own development and stability. Neighboring Argentina
has for several years been going through difficult
changes. In the last few weeks many Argentineans went
to their local banks and exchanged their currency
for US dollars, creating a rumor that the country's
economy could soon collapse. The international financial
institutions are now concerned that the Argentinean
crises will complicate the process of lending money
to other Latin American nations. The lack of faith
and ability to achieve fast recovery created by these
events in Argentina are directly influencing the dollar
exchange rate to climb in Brazil. Today it reached
US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.30, the highest since the beginning
of the Plano Real in 1994.
Despite
these numbers the Brazilian economy continues to show
signs of stability and foreign investment continues
to come (over 1 billion accumulated from the beginning
of this year through the month of April). Also, the
commercial trade balance should finish the month of
April with a surplus of US$ 134 million, and according
to the Ministry of Development and Trade, it should
stay positive in the next few months ahead.
Welson Tremura April 25,
2001